20 Things I’m Looking Forward To In 2020

1. PoW vs. PoS Debates 2. Growth of DEXs (0x, Nash, Uniswap, Kyber) 3. MPC vs. Multisig Approach for Custody 4. Industry Consolidation (M&A activity in custody, exchanges, node infrastructure, etc.) [1/5]

5. Prime brokerage disrupting exchanges 6. Watching Ethereum competitor traction and ROI for investors 7. Government crackdowns on unregistered securities and money laundering 8. State and company backed digital currencies (Libra, Kakao, China) [2/5]

9. Privacy tech impacting $BTC and $ETH (Taproot, Schnorr Signatures, Mixers) 10. Tokenization of digital collectibles and gaming 11. Improvements in data & compliance tools to legitimize crypto 12. US mining growth 13. IEOs become standard for launching networks [3/5]

14. Positive macro impact for digital assets (presidential election, hyper-inflation) 15. Firms getting exposed for reporting inflated/fake numbers to the media 16. More funding at the application layer 17. Better banking access for crypto companies within the US [4/5]

18. VC-coins tanking – aka some cheap buys 🙂 19. Institutional Adoption continuing to happen slowly 20. Authentication solutions for real-world & digital goods via DLT [5/5]

Cosmos Polkadot Ethereum

It’s not a secret that I am not bullish on Bitcoin. So let’s move to greener pastures, and take a look at platforms, especially #Ethereum, @cosmos, @polkadotnetwork and @tezos 16/n

On the other hand, there are plenty of signs that Ethereum is in trouble. It is fairly old technology, compared to Cosmos and Polkadot. No multichain architecture and almost no interoperability with other chains. Solidity is … not great, compared to something like Tezos. 21/n

However, the biggest issue is funding. ICOs are dead (thankfully), but there’s no other option to fund good projects. The Ethereum Foundation is managed spectacularly badly in my opinion. @gitcoin, @MolochDAO, etc are cool but you can’t build a $14bn ecosystem on these. 22/n

In contrast, Cosmos, Polkadot and Tezos have a much more modern architecture, and a lot of money (especially Tezos). Cosmos and Polkadot are trying to steal developers from Ethereum, and they will be successful if there’s no solution to the funding problem. 23/n

They all can grind through the Trough of Disillusionment, and just build stuff all through 2020. Will the price of $ATOM, $DOT and $XTZ go up? I don’t know! But I think it’s a good idea accumulating these coins. At least one of these will go far. 24/n

PoS 中心化问题

0/As regulation of #ProofOfStake networks continues evolving, albeit slowly and somewhat painfully, in the US and from my validator advisory work with some of the top staking networks, one contrast continues surfacing in my consciousness.

1/The contrast is between the regulators’ view that “sufficient” decentralization must exist to avoid a staking token from being classified as a security…while simultaneously,

2/…making it difficult for the network to achieve decentralization, because of the restrictions on how validators can be allocated tokens. Because…

3/ …current allocation restrictions tend to favor large, well capitalized validator investors. This results in stake centralization among these validator investors when the network launches. And…

4/…due to current staking economics, these investor validators become harder and harder to unseat, as their initial advantage compounds, in turn centralizing stake even more.

Vision Hill 10 大观点

Takeaway #1 – There’s Bitcoin & There’s Everything Else Everything else = Web3, DeFi, DAOs, SC layer-1s, security tokens, digital ID, data privacy, gaming, DLT & more Bitcoin is the first stop for many & likely will continue to be for the foreseeable future

#2 – Bitcoin is Perhaps Market Beta, For Now Not w/o drawbacks, but its size, institutionalization & clear regulatory status enable BTC to be an attractive 1st step for allocators looking for exposure (both long & short) to crypto We expect this trend to accelerate in 2020

#6 – Token Value Accrual: Subjective to Objective Ethereum, ETH & DeFi case study shows ETH is not directly capturing the value of all the assets launched on its platform; instead value is getting captured in the applications We discuss why this may be & ETH’s value proposition

#7 – Money or Not, Software-Powered Collateral Economies Are Here We are moving away from “cryptocurrencies” toward digital assets for financial applications & economic utility Digital collateral is a growing area of focus following success of @MakerDAO & @compoundfinance

#9 – It is Late in the Game for Layer-1 “Smart Contract Wars” If a SC platform does not launch by end of 2020, its position vs. peers in context of developer mindshare, future users & defensible network effects is likely to be challenged

Tezos 和 Cosmos 的侧重点

1/ Both @tezos$XTZ & @cosmos$ATOM recently decoupled from general market sentiment. We think those sharp moves upwards are well deserved – each in its own right We are thrilled to be genesis supporters of both ecosystems and look forward to serving both in the coming years

2/ Tezos Nakamoto-style PoS system lays the foundation for an inclusive system with extremely low barriers to entry The @tezos community leveraged that to build out the arguably most decentralized PoS systems we have today. The community genuinely cares about #decentralization

3/ The @cosmos#SDK has become a go-to solution for blockchain development with ambitions to become the de-facto standard The soon to come #IBC protocol will further increase the gravity of the whole @cosmos ecosystem and unleash the power of composability

Coinfund CEO 的 2020 年预测

After a partial recovery in the first half of 2019, the crypto markets were thrown to international government scrutiny and regulatory uncertainty mid-year, a phase marked by Facebook’s public launch of Libra in June. Far from the market recovery investors had hoped for following the 2018 crypto bear market, the blockchain space progressed in technological maturity while seemingly underperforming “crypto-focused” expectations. Nevertheless, digital assets have added 63% to their aggregate market capitalization so far in 2019 (as of writing in November). Even if 2019 wasn’t characterized by frothy speculative trading and dramatic highs as in previous years, it was a year of infrastructural progress.

Despite having operable smart contract blockchains like Ethereum in production, projects have struggled with product-market fit for decentralized applications in recent years. The industry might simply be too early. If we look back to how “mobile applications” progressed, they didn’t really solidify into a multi-billion dollar business until their infrastructure — smartphones like iPhone and mobile operating systems like Android — became extremely accessible, usable, and affordable. In the same way, blockchain infrastructure in the form of scalable blockchains, user-friendly wallet experiences, node and data services, and financial industry support for digital assets, might be a prerequisite to building decentralized applications at a rate which produces mainstream market fit. This kind of infrastructural progress was the subject of 2019.

Down in the lower layers of the decentralization stack, several second-generation smart contract platforms — notably PolkadotCosmosTezos, and NEAR — provided innovations in throughput, interoperability, network governance, and usability, and are challenging Ethereum’s market share and winding 2.0 roadmap. Additionally, Dapper Labs announced Flow, a base layer dedicated to mainstream-facing usability of games and their non-fungible tokens and digital assets, while simultaneously announcing a major partnership, NBA Top Shot

PoS 中心化问题

Check out our thread on PoS centralization. tldr; – PoS networks are trending toward centralization – This trend may be inevitable – Centralization reduces security / censorship resistance – Cryptography (zero-knowledge proofs) may be the only way to secure networks long-term

Why Cosmos

the fundamental reason why cosmos projects will likely do well in the future is because their investors actually have profits to flow out to into them

Gavin Wood 眼里的区块链战争

Gavin wood acknowledged the competitive dynamics at play: 1. Monopolies make better returns for backers 2. Game will become increasingly “zero-sum” 3. Collaboration and tech sharing less likely to continue The future “doesn’t paint a pretty picture”